Friday, April 4, 2014

Where DC's Office of Planning Expects Half of the City's Growth Over the Next 8 Years

Cluster
Neighborhoods
Population Added



25
NoMA, Union Station
15,342
27
Capper/Carrollsburg, Navy Yard,  Near Southeast
10,084
2
Columbia Heights, Mt Pleasant, Pleasant Plains, Park View
8,539
8
Downtown, Mt Vernon Square, Chinatown, Penn Quarter
8,419
21
Bloomingdale, Eckington, Edgewood, Truxton Circle
8,077
39
Congress Heights
5,579
37
Barry Farm, Sheridan, Buena Vista
5,279
18
Petworth, Crestwood, Brightwood Park
5,231


Together these clusters account for over 66,000 of the more than 131,000 residents OP anticipates will have been added to DC's population between 2010 and 2022.  This table includes all areas with a projected increase in population of 5,000 or more. 

As the map below (based on the same data) suggests, swathes may be a more useful metaphor than clusters in imagining where population growth is likely.  The darker the area, the greater the estimated population increase.   


Source: District of Columbia State Data Center, Indices 2013, Chapter 2, p. 40

Note that these numbers don't assume that much progress will have been made by 2022 on the redevelopment of the Walter Reed or the Saint Elizabeth's East campuses.  The anticipated 2022 population at Walter Reed (Cluster 40) is 844 people, on a site that the Mayor has said will ultimately house 4000 residents.  At Saint Elizabeth's (Cluster 43), the 2022 population is estimated to be 541.  That campus is planned for 1300 new residential units (which probably translates to over 2000 people).  The McMillan Sand Filtration Plant is located in Cluster 21 (which does make the list of high-growth areas) but it's unclear whether -- or to what extent --the estimated population increase is attributed to that site's redevelopment.